Forty-one days after 84-year-old Nancy Guthrie was abducted from her Tucson, Arizona home, Pima County Sheriff Chris Nanos made his most significant public statement yet — telling NBC News that investigators believe they have identified a motive in the case, even as the suspect remains at large and Nancy's whereabouts are still unknown.
Sheriff: 'We Believe We Know Why He Did This'
In a Thursday interview with NBC News, Sheriff Nanos offered a striking update on the investigation's progress, stating plainly: "We believe we know why he did this, and we believe that it was targeted, but we can't, we're not 100% sure of that." It marks the first time Nanos has publicly claimed investigators have a working theory on motive, though he declined to elaborate, citing the integrity of the ongoing investigation.
The sheriff also issued a pointed public safety warning, making clear that the unknown suspect should not be considered a threat limited to the Guthrie family. "It'd be silly to tell people, 'Yeah, don't worry about it. You're not his target,'" Nanos said, according to the BBC. "Don't think for a minute that because it happened to the Guthrie family, you're safe. No, keep your wits about you." The warning was directed in particular at residents of Guthrie's affluent Catalina Foothills neighborhood in Tucson.
Nanos confirmed that the suspect could "absolutely" strike again — a sobering assessment as the case enters its seventh week with no arrest and no publicly identified suspect.
FBI Turns Attention to Local Restaurant
Also on Friday, a separate investigative thread came to light: FBI agents have been questioning employees at El Charro Café, a beloved and well-known Mexican restaurant in Tucson, according to NewsNation correspondent Brian Entin, as reported by the New York Post and other outlets.
The restaurant holds particular significance because Nancy Guthrie and her daughter, TODAY show anchor Savannah Guthrie, filmed a segment there as part of a nostalgic tour of Tucson — a visit to places Nancy had frequented while raising her family. That segment aired months before the February 1 abduction.
According to Entin, federal agents asked restaurant workers whether they recalled seeing anyone acting suspiciously during the filming — specifically, anyone "who wanted to take pictures or who got angry or who was lingering around in a creepy way." It was not immediately clear whether workers were able to provide investigators with any actionable information, according to the New York Post. Attempts to reach El Charro Café for comment were not immediately successful.
The FBI's focus on the restaurant suggests investigators are working the theory that the abductor may have identified or fixated on Nancy Guthrie prior to the kidnapping — possibly through a public appearance or media event — and are now tracing her public footprint in the months before she disappeared.
Background: What Investigators Have Established So Far
Nancy Guthrie was reported missing on February 1, 2026, after she failed to appear at her regular church service. Doorbell camera footage from her Tucson home captured a masked man loitering on her doorstep on the night investigators believe she was taken. Beyond that image, no clear description of a suspect has been made public.
According to the BBC, the investigation has produced DNA evidence and ransom notes, though a California man arrested on suspicion of sending fraudulent ransom notes does not appear to be connected to the actual abduction. A delivery man detained for questioning was also cleared and released. No arrest directly tied to Nancy's disappearance has been made.
Savannah Guthrie has made repeated public appeals — including direct video messages to her mother's captor — and is offering a $1 million reward for information leading to Nancy's safe return, according to the BBC.
Expert Theories and Outside Voices
In recent days, outside analysts have weighed in with their own assessments. Former FBI Special Agent Jennifer Coffindaffer told Newsweek on March 11 that she believes the case began as a kidnapping for ransom and that "something went terribly wrong" — possibly a medical emergency or struggle — that may have forced the suspect or suspects to change course. Coffindaffer also said her top theory for how the case gets solved is "somebody coming forward that knows him — a girlfriend that gets angry at him or a family member that finds some sort of moral compass or wants that $1.2 million."
Separately, media personality Megyn Kelly flagged a 2013 TODAY show segment on her SiriusXM program in which Nancy Guthrie demonstrated her bed-making routine from inside her Tucson bedroom — raising the question of whether that publicly broadcast footage may have provided specific details later referenced in early ransom communications. Kelly's observations were speculative and have not been confirmed or commented upon by law enforcement.
What to Watch For Next
The sheriff's claim that investigators believe they know the motive raises the stakes considerably — and the pressure on the task force to make an arrest. Whether that motive belief is rooted in evidence gathered from ransom notes, DNA, surveillance footage, or witness accounts has not been disclosed. The FBI's active canvassing of El Charro Café suggests the investigation continues to probe Nancy's public profile and movements in the period leading up to her disappearance.
Key questions heading into the coming days include whether restaurant employees provided meaningful leads to the FBI, whether the sheriff's stated confidence in a motive will translate into a publicly named suspect, and whether the $1.2 million combined reward — $1 million from the Guthrie family and additional contributions — will prompt someone close to the perpetrator to come forward.